Tomorrow, New South Wales voters will choose their next government.
The winner will be the Liberal-National incumbent or the Labor insurgent.
At this point, no other party is strong enough to usurp either. They are the only options to form government.
The Liberal-National Coalition has been in power since 2011. In 12 years, they have had Premiers Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berejiklian and Dominic Perrottet. The second resigned at the top of his game and is now a middle-level manager of a bank. The first and third resigned under an ICAC cloud.
Under it’s leadership, transport services have improved dramatically. Hospitals have been adequate. School results have slowly diminished. It’s handling of covid was relatively light-touch at first, but Gladys Berekijlian requested that troops be deployed in Western Sydney to enforce covid restrictions and the Ruby Princess matter was a debacle, her government accommodated the slide towards the illiberal in education, much needed land releases were held back to keep real estate prices high, and much talent vacated the capital, Sydney.
Further, the Perrottet Government has veered dangerously towards a green tape business culture. In the dying days of this campaign, the Premier has flip-flopped on whether to keep Eraring Power Station. Debt has skyrocketed. It will take generations to repay the damage. Over the years, the clear stars have been Mike Baird and Andrew Constance, both now gone, as well as Victor Dominello who is still there.
The Labor Opposition has distance from the Eddie Obeid days. Chris Minns is a relatively unknown as Opposition Leader. He is certainly economically illiterate, not being even able to articulate a fully-funded first year budget. However, he performed the bells and baubles hustings game well in a presidential-style campaign before a friendly media. He had to do that because his shadow cabinet is obscure and without experience. On last count, there is not one MP in opposition with employing small business experience. On policies, they will certainly ramp-up the debt. But that is a bi-partisan policy.
I am ill-at-ease for my New South Welsh cousins.
They really have a tweedledum and tweedledee choice before them in terms of who forms government.
If I were a betting man, and on politics I am not because for me democracy is not a devalued commodity of a crap shoot or two-up round, I would suggest to the readers of Liberty Itch that both options represent higher taxes and lower personal freedom. I could recommend neither to you, and I am a former Young Liberal of the Year and State Executive member of the NSW Division of the Liberal Party in the 1990s.
No-one can predict the future and my track record is woeful, though I was correct with my Stunning Early Victoria Election Prediction.
However, at 6:54pm ACDT on 24 March 2023, I make three election predictions as follows:
Prediction #1: Labor will win!
Prediction #2: Labor will form majority government.
Prediction #3: Liberal will win the Legislative Assembly seat of Hornsby.
To be clear. I do not wish these results. I do predict them.
This will mean the Liberal-National Coalition will form no government on mainland Australia.
It will also mean that the Liberal-National Coalition will likely continue its current trend to electoral oblivion.
The support base for the Coalition is cleavered on the issue of climate change. It is an issue which has been fraught for many Liberal leaders for a decade. It is the equivalent of the DLP split from Labor in the 1950s which kept them out of power for twenty years.
What is for certain, NSW needs a government which keeps away from our bank accounts and out of our private lives.
It will be some time before that is a reality for the good folk of New South Wales.
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An entrepreneur who has employed 1,470+ people, Kenelm was admitted to the BRW Fast 100 three times with businesses in Australia, NZ, Singapore and New York, where he lived for 12 years. Kenelm’s investment firm performs mid-market leveraged roll-ups. He was a regular columnist for the Australian Financial Review. Kenelm is the Founder of Liberty Itch.
