25 Provocative Predictions For 2024 From The World’s #1 Political Observer

And do you agree with them?

GOVERNMENT OVERREACH

1. Habeas corpus will not be restored in Australia.

2. The Australian Federal Budget will be in deficit and expenditure will increase on the previous year.
   
   Correct: “A deficit of $28.3 billion is forecast in 2024–25.”
   Source: Statement 1: Budget Overview. Page 2.
   https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-1.pdf
   
   Correct: Forecast expenditures for 2023-24 and 2024-25 are $691,070,000,000 and $734,518,000,000 respectively.
   Source: Statement 6: Expenses and Net Capital Investment. Page 233.
   https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/index.htm

ENVIRONMENT

3. There will be at least 7 tropical cyclones or severe tropical cyclones in Australia.
   
   Correct:
   Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. 10-25 Jan 2024.
   Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. 12 Jan – 5 Feb 2024.
   Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. 14-25 Feb 2024.
   Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville. 4-24 Mar 2024.
   Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan. 13-21 Mar 2024.
   Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Olga. 4-11 Apr 2024.
   Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Paul. 9-12 Apr 2024.
   Source:
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season

STOCK MARKET

4. Woolworths’ revenue will be lower in the March 2024 quarter than in the March 2023 quarter.
   
   Incorrect: Federal Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, called for a Woolworths boycott because it would not stock Australia Day paraphernalia. I incorrectly thought this extraordinary interference with the market might suppress sales below the same quarter the previous year. However, revenue for the 2024 March quarter was $16,800,000,000, higher than for the 2023 March quarter which was $16,338,000,000.
   Source: Page 2.
   https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240502/pdf/0634t0t80r8xxq.pdf

HEALTH

5. There will be 10 or less global cases of wild polio.
   
   Incorrect: As at 30 September 2024, there have been 62 cases of wild polio in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Watch this space for more updates.
   Source:
   https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/world-polio-day-2024-a-challenging-year-for-global-eradication#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20190%20cases%20associated,a%20threat%20to%20children%20everywhere.

6. For the first time, 33% or more of the Australian population will be obese.

SOCIAL TRENDS

7. The sale of sex dolls will increase in Australia.

8. In at least one month during 2024, social media platform X will attract more than 450 million monthly users.
   
   Correct: On 24 May 2024, Elon Musk announced X achieved over 600 million monthly active users.
   Source:
   https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/elon-musk-x-now-600-million-monthly-active-users/717078/ and https://backlinko.com/twitter-users#twitter-monthly-users

9. Mount Barker SA will have a larger population than Busselton WA, Orange NSW, Bowral NSW, Dubbo NSW, Nowra NSW or Bathurst NSW.

10. At least 25% of Australians will attend church monthly.

11. Less than 50% of Australians will use TV as their source of news.

12. Pet ownership in Australia will grow to more than 70% of all households.

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

13. Space X’s Starship will successfully reach orbit. 

ECONOMICS

14. The number of new incorporations will decrease in Australia from the previous year.
    
    Pending: In 2022-23, there were 406,365 business entries in Australia. We are waiting for the 2023-24 number
    Source:
    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/counts-australian-businesses-including-entries-and- exits/latest-release

15. Cash transactions will decrease below 17% of total transactions.

16. Australian coal exports will increase from last year.

ELECTIONS

17. The ALP-Greens Coalition will be returned to government in the ACT General Election.

    Incorrect. Labor won 10 seats. Liberal won 9. In order to secure a majority, the parties needed 13 seats. Whilst Labor entered into an agreement with the Greens to secure government, the Greens decided not to enter into a coalition or formal power sharing agreement, opting instead to simply guarantee supply bills for Labor

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Australian_Capital_Territory_election

18. The Country Liberal Party will win the Northern Territory General Election.
    
    Correct: The CLP won the election on 24 Aug 2024.
    Source:
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/country-liberal-party-promises-new-chapter-after-northern-territory-election-win/cwyuz1x0a

19. The Liberal-National Party will win the Queensland State Election.

    Correct. The Liberal-National Party won 52 seats, needing only 46 to former government.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Queensland_state_election

20. Barring court-affirmed election fraud, a diagnosis of ill-health, imprisonment or assassination, Donald Trump will win the US Presidency.

GEOPOLITICS

21. In 2024, China will neither invade Taiwan by land nor impose a naval blockade.

22. The United Nations General Assembly will pass at least three resolutions concerning Israel and Australia will vote with the United States.
    
    Pending: UN Security Council Resolution 2735 adopted 10 June 2024.
    Source: https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n24/165/11/pdf/n2416511.pdf

23. There will be no resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

24. At least two international borders will change.
    
    Correct:
    1 Jan 2024. Republic of Artsakh reintegrated into Azerbaijan.
    1 Apr 2024. Puntland announces independence from Somalia.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_border_changes_(1914%E2%80%93present)

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DEATHS

25. At least two of the following people will die: Ray Lawler, Sophia Loren, Julian Assange, Patricia Routledge, Tom Hughes, Jimmy Carter, Mike Carlton.
    
    Pending: Ray Lawler died on 24 July 2024.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Lawler

SUMMARY
Correct: 6
Pending: 16
Incorrect: 3