GOVERNMENT OVERREACH
1.Habeas corpus will not be restored in Australia
2.The Australian Federal Budget will be in deficit and expenditure will increase on the previous year
Correct: “A deficit of $28.3 billion is forecast in 2024–25.”
Source: Statement 1: Budget Overview. Page 2. https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-1.pdf.
Correct: Forecast expenditures for 2023-24 and 2024-25 are $691,070,000,000 and $734,518,000,000 respectively.
Source: Statement 6: Expenses and Net Capital Investment. Page 233. https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/index.htm
ENVIRONMENT
3.There will be at least 7 tropical cyclones or severe tropical cyclones in Australia
Correct:
- Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. 10-25 Jan 2024.
- Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. 12 Jan – 5 Feb 2024.
- Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. 14-25 Feb 2024.
- Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville. 4-24 Mar 2024.
- Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan. 13-21 Mar 2024.
- Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Olga. 4-11 Apr 2024.
- Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Paul. 9-12 Apr 2024.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season
STOCK MARKET
4.Woolworths’ revenue will be lower in the March 2024 quarter than in the March 2023 quarter
Incorrect: Federal Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, called for a Woolworths boycott because it would not stock Australia Day paraphernalia. I incorrectly thought this extraordinary interference with the market might suppress sales below the same quarter the previous year. However, revenue for the 2024 March quarter was $16,800,000,000, higher than for the 2023 March quarter which was $16,338,000,000.
Source: Page 2. https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240502/pdf/0634t0t80r8xxq.pdf
HEALTH
5.There will be 10 or less global cases of wild polio
Pending: As at 25 May 2024, there have been two cases of wild polio globally, both in Pakistan. Watch this space for more updates.
6.For the first time, 33% or more of the Australian population will be obese
SOCIAL TRENDS
7.The sale of sex dolls will increase in Australia
8.In at least one month during 2024, social media platform X will attract more than 450 million monthly users
Correct: “Elon claims that X is now up to 600 million monthly active users”
Source: https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/elon-musk-x-now-600-million-monthly-active-users/717078/ and https://backlinko.com/twitter-users#twitter-monthly-users
9.Mount Barker SA will have a larger population than Busselton WA, Orange NSW, Bowral NSW, Dubbo NSW, Nowra NSW or Bathurst NSW
10.At least 25% of Australians will attend church monthly
11.Less than 50% of Australians will use TV as their source of news
12.Pet ownership in Australia will grow to more than 70% of all households
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
13.Space X’s Starship will successfully reach orbit
ECONOMICS
14.The number of new incorporations will decrease in Australia from the previous year
Pending: In 2022-23, there were 406,365 business entries in Australia. In 2023-24, it was …
15.Cash transactions will decrease below 17% of total transactions
16.Australian coal exports will increase from last year
ELECTIONS
17.The ALP-Greens Coalition will be returned to government in the ACT General Election
Pending: The election is due to be held on 19 Oct 2024.
18.The Country Liberal Party will win the Northern Territory General Election
Correct: The CLP won the election on 24 Aug 2024.
19.The Liberal-National Party will win the Queensland State Election
Pending: The election is due to be held on 26 Oct 2024.
20.Barring court-affirmed election fraud, a diagnosis of ill-health, imprisonment or assassination, Donald Trump will win the US Presidency
Pending: The election is due to be held on 5 Nov 2024.
GEOPOLITICS
21.In 2024, China will neither invade Taiwan by land or naval blockade
22.The United Nations General Assembly will pass at least three resolutions concerning Israel and Australia will vote with the United States
Pending: UN Security Council Resolution 2735 adopted 10 June 2024.
23.There will be no resolution to the conflict in Ukraine
24.At least two international borders will change
DEATHS
25.At least two of the following people will die: Ray Lawler, Sophia Loren, Julian Assange, Patricia Routledge, Tom Hughes, Jimmy Carter, Mike Carlton
Pending: Ray Lawler died on 24 July 2024.
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An entrepreneur who has employed 1,470+ people, Kenelm was admitted to the BRW Fast 100 three times with businesses in Australia, NZ, Singapore and New York, where he lived for 12 years. Kenelm’s investment firm performs mid-market leveraged roll-ups. He was a regular columnist for the Australian Financial Review. Kenelm is the Founder of Liberty Itch.
